And that’s a wrap for the regular season. Here’s a breakdown of the model’s performance for Week 18:
The model posted a 60% accuracy rate on moneylines with 9 wins, 6 losses, and 1 push across all games. As designed, the model targeted value in underdog picks, going 1-1 for a 50% hit rate. This brings the overall season moneyline performance to 166-95-11 (64%), with 37 upsets called.
The model had High or Very High confidence in six games this week and went 3-3 for a 50% success rate. This brings the model’s high-confidence season moneyline record to 84-35-1 (71%).
Browns @ Bengals – Myles Garret got his NFL single-season sack record, and Shedeur Sanders picked up another win for the Browns. This one came down to a last-second field goal, where the Bengals defense performed how they did all year and couldn’t stop anything.
Commanders @ Eagles – The Eagles rested their starters for this game, and the backups couldn’t get it done.
Lions @ Bears – The Lions jumped out to a 16-point lead. Even though the Bears looked like they were going to pull off another comeback with 16 unanswered points, the Lions were able to secure a walk-off field goal and get the win.
Week 18 – Top Bets had the worst week of the year, going 0-7. With many teams resting starters and other teams not caring much about the outcome, it was difficult for the model to accurately determine just how badly some teams would lose. Cam Ward went out early in the Titans’ game, which resulted in the Jaguars absolutely crushing them, and the Chargers couldn’t score any points on the Broncos, leading to the same result.
Here are the full results:
Parlays:
Moneyline Bets:
Spread Bets:
It was a rough week for the Top Bets, but a fantastic regular season overall. With 37 upsets predicted and 71% accuracy on high-confidence moneyline picks, it was a season full of incredible Rogue Predictions, and we expect even more in the postseason.
On to the playoffs and Week 19!