The model’s hot streak continues with another great week in the books. Here’s a breakdown of the model’s performance:
Note: When Week 18 predictions are first posted on Wednesday, they will include per-team betting line breakdowns for a deeper look into the model’s performance for the season.
The model posted an 80% accuracy rate on moneylines with 12 wins, 3 losses, and 1 push across all games. As designed, the model targeted value in underdog picks, going 4-1 for an 80% hit rate. This brings the overall season total moneyline performance to 157-89-10 (64%), with 36 upsets called.
The model had High or Very High confidence in ten games this week and went 8-2 for a 80% success rate. This brings the model’s high-confidence season moneyline record to 81-32-1 (72%).
Steelers @ Browns – It turns out that not having D.K. Metcalf or Calvin Austin was too much for the Steelers to overcome. Myles Garret didn’t get his single-season record-breaking sack against Rodgers, but the Browns’ defense still brought plenty of pressure and kept the Steelers in check.
Eagles @ Bills - As expected, this was a close game. The Bills almost got the win with the two-point attempt at the end of regulation but couldn’t convert. A costly turnover and a missed extra point ultimately contributed to the loss.
Week 17 – Top Bets went 3-4, for a 43% hit rate. One parlay hit, but the other included the Buccaneers when the final injury report tipped the predictions to Miami late Sunday morning. That didn’t matter, though, as the Steelers loss killed that parlay and a spread bet.
Here are the full results:
Parlays:
Moneyline Bets:
Spread Bets:
The model’s streak continues posting above 70% moneyline accuracy in each of the last five weeks while correctly predicting 36 upsets on the season. With only one more week of the regular season left, we’re eager to see the hot streak continue and head into the playoffs in great shape.
On to the New Year and Week 18!