Another great week for the model and for Top Bets in the books. Here’s a breakdown of the model’s performance:
Note: When Week 17 predictions are first posted on Wednesday, they will include per-team betting line breakdowns for a deeper look into the model’s performance for the season.
The model posted a 75% accuracy rate on moneylines with 12 wins and 4 losses across all games. As designed, the model targeted value in underdog picks, going 4-1 for an 80% hit rate. This brings the overall season total moneyline performance to 145-86-9 (63%), with 32 upsets called.
The model had High or Very High confidence in seven games this week and went 6-1 for a 86% success rate. This brings the model’s high-confidence season moneyline record to 73-30-1 (71%).
Patriots @ Ravens – Lamar Jackson was knocked out of the game before halftime, but things were still looking ok with the Patriots unable to stop Derrick Henry. Unfortunately, for some inexcusable reason, the Ravens decided not to play Henry in their last two drives and, as a result, lost a must-win game.
Week 16 – Top Bets were profitable, going 5-3, for a 63% hit rate. The parlays were undone by both the Chiefs and Ravens losing their starting QBs mid-game, and the Broncos just couldn’t get it done against the Jaguars for their spread bet.
Here are the full results:
Parlays:
Moneyline Bets:
Spread Bets:
The model has posted above 70% moneyline accuracy in each of the last four weeks and has correctly predicted 32 upsets on the season. With only two more weeks of the regular season left, we’re eager to see the hot streak continue heading into the playoffs.
On to the holidays and Week 17!