Another great week for the model and a decent one for Top Bets. Here’s a breakdown of the model’s performance:
Note: When Week 16 predictions are first posted on Wednesday, they will include per-team betting line breakdowns for a deeper look into the model’s performance for the season.
The model posted a 73% accuracy rate on moneylines with 11 wins, 4 losses , and 1 push across all games. As designed, the model targeted value in underdog picks, going 3-2 for a 60% hit rate. This brings the overall season total moneyline performance to 133-82-9 (62%), with 28 upsets called.
The model had High or Very High confidence in nine games this week and went 8-1 for a 89% success rate. This brings the model’s high-confidence season moneyline record to 67-29-1 (70%).
Commanders @ Giants – It seems the model got this one wrong. While the final score brought the game to within 8 points, anyone watching this game knows it wasn’t close. The model likely over-indexed on the Commanders’ abysmal performance last week and thought the Giants had a chance.
Week 15 – Top Bets went 3-3, for a 50% hit rate. Unfortunately, the Giants were in both a parlay and spread bet, so their loss to the Commanders was compounded. It’s too bad the Giants were the one high-confidence pick that didn’t pan out as otherwise Top Bets would have gone 5-1.
Here are the full results:
Parlays:
Moneyline Bets:
Spread Bets:
The model has been on a hot streak lately. With 28 upsets correctly predicted on the season and a 70% success rate for high-confidence picks, it’s been a strong year overall. Only three weeks remain in the regular season, and while some teams have clinched playoff spots, many others will be fighting tooth and nail. We expect some more great football ahead.
On to Week 16!