It was a great week for the model and for Top Bets. Here’s a breakdown of the model’s performance:
Note: When Week 15 predictions are first posted on Wednesday, they will include per-team betting line breakdowns for a deeper look into the model’s performance for the season.
The model posted a 77% accuracy rate on moneylines with 10 wins, 3 losses , and 1 push across all games. As designed, the model targeted value in underdog picks, going 4-1 for a 80% hit rate. This brings the overall season total moneyline performance to 122-78-8 (61%), with 25 upsets called.
The model had High or Very High confidence in six games this week and went 4-1-1 for a 80% success rate. This brings the model’s high-confidence season moneyline record to 59-28-1 (68%).
Steelers @ Ravens – Once again, the Ravens couldn’t get it done even though the model had high confidence in them. We could discuss Likely’s catch/no-catch and whether the Ravens may have actually won, but either way they continue to make mistakes and were outplayed overall by the Steelers. We expect the model will start adjusting to reflect this new Ravens’ reality.
Week 14 – Top Bets were profitable, going 4-3. One of the parlays hit as well as the Texans underdog moneyline which were nice wins. We aren’t sure why Pete Carroll kicked that field goal in the Raiders game, but we are happy he did.
Here are the full results:
Parlays:
Moneyline Bets:
Spread Bets:
It was a great week for predictions and for Top Bets. The model once again did fantastic with underdogs and high-confidence picks. We are excited to see what the model has in store for the few remaining weeks of the regular season.
On to Week 15!