It was a great week for the model but less so for Top Bets. Here’s a breakdown of the model’s performance:
Note: When Week 14 predictions are first posted on Wednesday, they will include per-team betting line breakdowns for a deeper look into the model’s performance for the season.
The model posted a 75% accuracy rate on moneylines with 12 wins and 4 losses across all games. As designed, the model targeted value in underdog picks, going 4-1 for a 80% hit rate. This brings the overall season total moneyline performance to 112-75-7 (60%), with 21 upsets called.
The model had High or Very High confidence in six games this week and went 4-2 for a 67% success rate. This brings the model’s high-confidence season moneyline record to 55-27 (67%).
Bengals @ Ravens – This one was a bit of a shock. We thought Joe Burrow’s impact would be negligible, but him coming back combined with Ravens turnovers and mistakes turned this game on its head.
Cardinals @ Buccaneers – We still liked the model’s pick here as the Cardinals had a chance at a game-winning drive. It seems even though Baker was banged up, it didn’t impact his performance much in this one.
The Week 13 – Top Bets didn’t do great, going only 2-6. The Bears moneyline bet was a big win, but unfortunately, the Ravens, Rams, and Colts all being upset killed a lot of these bets.
Here are the full results:
Parlays:
Moneyline Bets:
Spread Bets:
It was a good week for predictions but less so for Top Bets. The model once again did great with underdogs and high-confidence picks.
On to Week 14!