It was a great week of games, here’s a breakdown of the model’s performance:
Note: When Week 12 predictions are first posted on Wednesday, they will include per-team betting line breakdowns for a deeper look into the model’s performance for the season.
The model posted a 73% accuracy rate on moneylines with 11 wins and 4 losses across all games. As designed, the model targeted value in underdog picks, going 2-2 for a 50% hit rate. This brings the overall season total moneyline performance to 92-65-7 (59%), with 17 upsets called.
The model had High or Very High confidence in five games this week and went 3-2 for a 60% success rate. This brings the model’s high-confidence season moneyline record to 46-23 (67%).
Panthers @ Falcons – The Falcons had a good lead, but then Michael Penix went out with an injury and it was all downhill from there. Kirk Cousins couldn’t keep the Falcons in the game and the Panthers beat them yet again.
Chargers @ Jaguars – This was ugly. The Chargers completely imploded and lost by 29 points in a game they were favored to win.
The Week 11 – Top Bets did great, going 5-2 with both underdog moneylines hitting. The Falcons’ loss unfortunately knocked out the confident parlay, but the low-confidence parlay with +177 odds still won.
Here are the full results:
Parlays:
Moneyline Bets:
Spread Bets:
This was a great week for predictions, underdog picks, and Top Bets. The model keeps digesting new signals as the season progresses, and we expect more great predictions ahead.
On to Week 12!