It was a week of interesting games, here’s a breakdown of the model’s performance:
Note: When Week 11 predictions are first posted on Wednesday, they will include per-team betting line breakdowns for a deeper look into the model’s performance for the season.
The model posted a 62% accuracy rate on moneylines with 8 wins, 5 losses, and 1 push across all games. As designed, the model targeted value in underdog picks, going 2-1 for a 67% hit rate. This brings the overall season total moneyline performance to 81-61-7 (57%), with 15 upsets called.
The model had High or Very High confidence in six games this week and went 5-1 for a 83% success rate. This brings the model’s high-confidence season moneyline record to 43-21 (67%).
Bills @ Dolphins – Not much to be said about this one. The Dolphins showed up, and the Bills did not. The results caught a lot of people by surprise.
The Week 10 – Top Bets had a rough week, going just 2-5. The Bills’ loss knocked out the confident parlay, and the Bears won by four instead of five, failing to cover the spread. The Steelers’ defense came to play, but they forgot to bring the offense with them, which lost the moneyline play.
Here are the full results:
Parlays:
Moneyline Bets:
Spread Bets:
This was a great week for high-confidence predictions and underdog picks, but less so for Top Bets. To say this has been an interesting NFL season would be an understatement as we’ve had everything from ties to scoreless first halves. We’ll see if the volatility continues into week 11, and we’ll see how our models navigate it.