It was a week of surprises, but also a great week for our Top Bets, here’s a breakdown of the model’s performance:
Note: When Week 10 predictions are first posted on Wednesday, they will include per-team betting line breakdowns for a deeper look into the model’s performance for the season.
The model posted a 54% accuracy rate on moneylines with 7 wins, 6 losses, and 1 push across all games. This brings the overall season total moneyline performance to 73-56-6 (57%), with 13 upsets called.
The model had High or Very High confidence in 7 games this week and went 4-3 for a 57% success rate. This brings the model’s high-confidence season moneyline record to 38-20 (66%).
Panthers @ Packers – The Packers were a 14-point favorite and couldn’t get it done. The Panthers have been all over the place this season, combine that with the Packers’ surprising losses, and you end up with a very unexpected outcome.
Colts @ Steelers - The Colts had committed only four turnovers all season heading into this game, where they ended up committing six. Statistically, the Colts were the right pick, but they choked against an aggressive Steelers defense and still only lost by one score.
Vikings @ Lions - J.J. McCarthy is ready to play ball, and he put on an impressive performance against a tough Lions team. The Vikings defense didn’t make points easy for the Lions, and McCarthy took full advantage of his offensive weapons to come away with the win here.
The Week 9 – Top Bets did excellent going 5-2 for a profitable week. The Colts and Lions upsets knocked out one parlay and one spread bet, but everything else went exactly as predicted.
Here are the full results:
Parlays:
Moneyline Bets:
Spread Bets:
This was one of the tougher weeks for high confidence predictions with three upsets occurring and tipping the scales. Even with a lower high-confidence hit rate, Top Bets remained highly successful and is at a positive ROI on the season.
We are at the halfway point of the regular season, so there’s still plenty of football left to be played. Many teams’ fates remain undecided, and with the NFL trade deadline approaching, we are eager to see how certain roster moves will shift projections. On to another profitable and interesting week!