Another great week of football in the books, here’s a breakdown of the model’s performance:

Note: When Week 8 predictions are first posted on Wednesday, they will include per-team betting line breakdowns for a deeper look into the model’s performance for the season.

Overall W/L

The model posted a 64% accuracy rate on moneylines with 9 wins, 5 losses, and 1 push across all games. As designed, the model targeted value in underdog picks, going 2-4 for a 33% hit rate. This brings the overall season total moneyline performance to 60-43-5 (58%), with 12 upsets called.

High Confidence W/L

The model had High or Very High confidence in 10 games this week and went 7-3 for a 70% success rate. This brings the model’s high-confidence season moneyline record to 31-16 (66%).

• Steelers @ Bengals ❌
• Rams @ Jaguars ✅
• Saints @ Bears ✅
• Panthers @ Jets ✅
• Raiders @ Chiefs ✅
• Eagles @ Vikings ❌
• Patriots @ Titans ✅
• Colts @ Chargers ✅
• Giants @ Broncos ✅
• Falcons @ 49ers ❌

Steelers @ Bengals – What a game between two veteran QBs. This one was close, but Joe Flacco did much better on his new team than the model anticipated. We were holding our breath for Aaron Rodgers’ final Hail Mary, but Joe Flacco’s performance was the only miracle that happened in this game.

Eagles @ Vikings - This was another close game, but Carson Wentz did Carson Wentz things and committed some key turnovers that handed it to the Eagles. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offense also silenced the doubters with a great performance.

Falcons @ 49ers - The 49ers continue to impress even with an injury list a mile long. McCaffrey had a great game and Bijan Robinson did not. Michael Penix couldn’t handle the pressure the 49ers brought, and while the Falcons put up a good fight, the 49ers were the better team.

Top Bets Performance

The Week 7 – Top Bets took a hit with the Vikings loss, but if caution was exercised on the picks we said were long shots, then a small profit was made. Here are the full results:

Parlays:

• Bears moneyline, Panthers moneyline, Chiefs moneyline ✅
• Rams moneyline, Vikings moneyline, Broncos moneyline ❌

Moneyline Bets:

• Dolphins @ Browns: Dolphins ❌
  • We said this game was a toss-up and that simulations actually had the Browns winning, but proposed it as a long-shot underdog.
• Colts @ Chargers: Colts ✅
  • This game went exactly as we predicted in our analysis.

Spread Bets:

• Vikings @ Eagles: Vikings +2 ❌
• Panthers @ Jets: Panthers -1.5 ✅
• Falcons @ 49ers: Falcons +2 ❌
• Patriots @ Titans: Titans +7 ❌

Conclusion

It was another great week for High confidence games. Top Bets eked out a small profit, but there were a couple of compounding losses (looking at you Vikings).

As the season progresses, we see the model gaining more confidence, and that confidence is not misplaced. The model continues to perform extremely well this far into the season, and we look forward to what’s in store for Week 8!